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Why SCOTUS Overturns the Tariffs this Friday
The market is currently bracing for one of the most significant legal decisions in modern trade history. On Friday, January 9, 2026, the Supreme Court is widely expected to issue its ruling in V.O.S. Selections v. Trump. If the court follows the skepticism displayed during oral arguments, we are looking at a total dismantling of the administration's primary tariff regime. (Barrett and Gorsuch joining liberal judges)
1. The Statutory "Death Blow": Regulation is Not Taxation
The core of the legal challenge rests on the text of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). During the November hearings, a consensus seemed to form among both the liberal and conservative wings of the court:
Literal Meaning: The IEEPA grants the President the power to "regulate" or "prohibit" imports during an emergency. It does not mention the power to "tax" or "impose duties."
Constitutional Divide: Justice Gorsuch and Justice Barrett both pointed out that Article I of the Constitution explicitly gives the "Power of the Purse" and the authority to "lay and collect Taxes" to Congress.
Major Questions Doctrine: This court has been consistently hostile to "unheralded" expansions of executive power. Striking down the tariffs would be consistent with their recent history of reining in federal agencies and executive overreach.
2. The Cantor Fitzgerald "Signal": Open Corruption, Follow The Money
Perhaps the most compelling piece of "on-the-ground" evidence is the behavior of Cantor Fitzgerald, the investment firm previously led by current Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and now run by his son, Brandon Lutnick.
The "Litigation Finance" Product: Reports from Wired and subsequent Senate probes by Ron Wyden and Elizabeth Warren reveal that Cantor has been offering a product to buy up the rights to tariff refunds from importers.
The Bet: Cantor is reportedly offering companies 20% to 30% of their paid tariffs in immediate cash. In exchange, Cantor becomes the owner of the legal claim. If the Supreme Court strikes down the tariffs, Cantor collects 100% of the refund from the Treasury.
My positions:
$LULU 1/16 $215C
$W 1/16 $110C
$M 1/16 $23C (Saw unusual options activity today)
$COST 1/16 $900C
$NKE 1/16 $65C