Prestigious_Meet820
5d ago
I've been short for nearly two weeks because of the WBD buyout, personally I think it'll go lower and it was a pretty clear win-win (or lose-lose for Netflix) in the whole buyout ordeal when choosing who to bet on: WBD, PSKY, CMCSA, and NFLX. Also long PSKY and WBD calls.
The biggest threat to Netflix is M&A between their competitors and the more they offer for WBD the more the stock will drop. If they lose the bid they have another formidable competitor, and even worse a huge amount of their content will be licensed from a more consolidated industry. Paying $30+ for WBD is pretty crazy considering it was <$8 a bit over a year ago. Basically WBD is trying to bankrupt another titan lol.
The stock is also overvalued from a basic cashflow perspective although it's coming back down to somewhat elevated but more reasonable levels for its growth.
TLDR: win the bid for WBD it goes down, lose the bid for WBD and it goes down.
WickedSensitiveCrew
5d ago
Yeah. If NFLX wins, they’re taking on about $59B in debt and diluting shareholders. If they lose, Paramount becomes a stronger competitor.
And if Netflix has to raise their bid, that means even more debt and more dilution. Instead of playing NFLX, I added to my WBD position in the $18–20 range a couple weeks ago, since that’s the company everyone is fighting over and was barely discussed on this sub back then and even now it barely discussed. Discussion around the acquiring companies.