AI 会重蹈网络经济泡沫覆辙吗？

[shepherd17]

即将公布的 NVDA 的财报牵动无数人的心弦，NVDA 的财报影响的不仅是其自身的股价，更直接影响股市走向。几家欢喜几家愁。

最近几年 NVDA 股价飙升与 AI 火热密不可分。全世界都在讨论 AI，这种疯狂态势有点儿可怕。

我问 ChatGPT，我们今年会不会遭遇网络经济泡沫那样的股市崩溃。ChatGPT 回答:

The AI industry is definitely experiencing rapid growth, but whether it will "burst" in 2025 depends on what you mean by that.

If you’re referring to a dot-com-style bubble burst, where companies collapse and investments dry up, that seems unlikely. AI is being integrated into real-world applications across various industries, from healthcare to finance, making it more sustainable than a hype-driven bubble. However, there could be a market correction—some overhyped startups may fail, and investors might become more cautious.

That said, AI still faces major challenges, like regulatory scrutiny, ethical concerns, and the high cost of training models. If these factors slow down progress or make AI less profitable, we could see a slowdown, but not necessarily a crash.

What do you think? Are you optimistic or skeptical about AI’s future?

[shepherd17]

我又问 DeepSeek 同样的问题。DeepSeek 话比较多:

The question of whether the AI bubble will burst in 2025 is complex and hinges on multiple factors. Here's a structured analysis:

1. Understanding the AI "Bubble"

A bubble occurs when asset valuations detach from fundamentals due to hype, speculation, or irrational exuberance. In AI, this could involve overvaluation of startups, excessive investment in unproven technologies, or inflated expectations about near-term capabilities.

2. Factors That Could Lead to a Burst

• Overhyped Expectations: If AI fails to deliver on promises (e.g., fully autonomous vehicles, revolutionary healthcare breakthroughs) by 2025, investor disillusionment could trigger a correction.
• Regulatory Pressures: Governments might impose strict regulations on ethics, privacy, or monopolistic practices, stifling growth.
• Economic Shifts: Rising interest rates could reduce speculative investments, particularly in high-risk AI startups.
• Market Saturation: A glut of undifferentiated AI companies competing for limited markets might lead to consolidation or failures.
• Technical/Social Backlash: High-profile AI failures (e.g., bias scandals, job displacement crises) could erode public and investor confidence.

3. Factors Supporting Sustained Growth

• Broad Applications: Unlike niche tech bubbles, AI is a general-purpose tool with uses in healthcare, finance, logistics, and more, anchoring long-term value.
• Corporate Backing: Major tech firms (Google, Microsoft, etc.) integrate AI into diversified revenue streams, reducing reliance on standalone hype.
• Technological Advancements: Continued progress in compute power, algorithms, and data availability supports tangible innovation.
• Regulatory Support: Pro-AI policies (e.g., funding for R&D, digital infrastructure) could sustain growth.

4. Historical Parallels

• The dot-com bubble (1997–2000) saw a crash in overvalued internet firms, but the internet itself became foundational. Similarly, an AI correction might prune weak players while the technology endures.
• Cryptocurrency/Blockchain cycles show how hype can outpace utility, but core innovations persist.

5. Why 2025?

• Investment Cycles: Many AI ventures funded during the 2020–2023 boom may face "proof of concept" deadlines by 2025.
• Generative AI Fatigue: Tools like ChatGPT may lose novelty, exposing gaps in profitability or scalability.
• Macroeconomic Context: If global recessions or geopolitical tensions (e.g., semiconductor shortages) intersect with AI challenges, 2025 could mark a tipping point.

6. Conclusion: Likelihood of a Burst

Predicting bubbles is inherently uncertain, but risks exist. Key considerations:

• Probable Correction: A shakeout of overvalued startups is likely, but not a catastrophic crash.
• No "Dot-Com 2.0": AI’s foundational role in tech suggests resilience, even amid turbulence.
• 2025 as a Symbolic Timeline: The year aligns with projected milestones for many AI projects and investment cycles, making it a plausible candidate for reckoning.

In short, while a full-scale burst is not guaranteed, a market correction in specific AI sectors by 2025 is plausible. The technology itself will likely continue evolving, but investor sentiment and economic conditions will determine the scale of any downturn.

[lostsoul]

急需水晶球

即将公布的 NVDA 的财报牵动无数人的心弦，NVDA 的财报影响的不仅是其自身的股价，更直接影响股市走向。几家欢喜几家愁。

最近几年 NVDA 股价飙升与 AI 火热密不可分。全世界都在讨论 AI，这种疯狂态势有点儿可怕。

我问 ChatGPT，我们今年会不会遭遇网络经济泡沫那样的股市崩溃。ChatGPT 回答:

The AI industry is definitely experiencing rapid growth, but whether it will "burst" in 2025 depends on what you mean by that.

If you’re referring to a dot-com-style bubble burst, where companies collapse and investments dry up, that seems unlikely. AI is being integrated into real-world applications across various industries, from healthcare to finance, making it more sustainable than a hype-driven bubble. However, there could be a market correction—some overhyped startups may fail, and investors might become more cautious.

That said, AI still faces major challenges, like regulatory scrutiny, ethical concerns, and the high cost of training models. If these factors slow down progress or make AI less profitable, we could see a slowdown, but not necessarily a crash.

What do you think? Are you optimistic or skeptical about AI’s future?

[shepherd17]

急需水晶球

我命在我不在天。
小心驶得万年船。

[lostsoul]

急需水晶球

我命在我不在天。
小心驶得万年船。

以后还得多向高手学习