迈克尔·伯里仍坚持看空芯片板块
在标普500创下连续42个交易日以来的首次收盘新高后，著名投资人迈克尔·伯里也发表了看法。他因预测美国房地产市场崩盘而闻名，并在电影《大空头》中被刻画。
伯里周三清晨在 X 上引用其 Substack 帖子称：“我仍然相信，我们可能正接近一个主要顶部，也可能出现类似1987年的下跌，但标普500创下新高很可能会吸引新的资金入市。”
1987年10月19日，道琼斯工业平均指数暴跌22.6%，这一事件被称为“黑色星期一”，至今仍是其史上最大单日百分比跌幅。
伯里表示，他仍维持对芯片股下跌的押注，通过买入 iShares 半导体 ETF（SOXX）的看跌期权以及“股票空头头寸”。早在2025年底，伯里的 Scion Asset Management 首次披露其对 AI 交易的悲观态度，建立了对 Palantir（PLTR）和英伟达（NVDA）的空头头寸。
尽管 Palantir 最新一轮财报推动股价上涨，但其股价仍低于伯里在去年11月披露做空时的水平。英伟达股价有所上涨，但涨幅并不显著。此后伯里还推荐了其他多项股票交易。
他周三表示：“记住，市场在波动率下降时上涨，会迫使波动率目标基金加杠杆，并使其他动量策略的杠杆进入市场。”这指的是对冲基金等大型投资者采用的系统性策略：当波动率下降时自动买入。然而，如果情况突然变化，这些仓位可能迅速反转，从而令股市下跌。
芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX），即华尔街“恐慌指数”，周二上涨4%至16.5，但过去五个交易日已下跌21%。
在其 Substack 的另一段内容中，伯里引用了 BTIG Research 的 Jonathan Krinsky 的观点：标普500在四个交易日内上涨5%并创下新高，这在过去30年中仅出现过三次。
伯里说：“一次是2000年3月21日，基本上处于1990年代科技媒体电信泡沫的顶部。另两次分别是1999年4月23日 - 大多数当时荒诞的互联网公司开始崩盘的时期，以及2020年11月9日。”他分享了 Krinsky 的图表，显示这两次都不是最佳买入时机：
伯里还披露了新的仓位，据报道，他已退出微软（MSFT）的多头和看涨期权，平掉了甲骨文（ORCL）的空头和看跌期权，并关闭了2026年1月到期的 Palantir（PLTR）看跌期权，尽管他仍然做空该股票。
Palantir 股价周二暴涨29%，为2024年2月以来最大单日涨幅。伯里将其英伟达的看跌期权展期至2027年6月，并将其 Invesco QQQ（QQQ）的空头头寸展期至2027年2月。
一些人对他的崩盘预警提出反驳，例如 Vertical Research Advisory 的管理合伙人兼创始人 Kip Herriage 在 X 上写道：“除非发生外星人攻击，在如此广度和强度的牛市中，伯里的空头仓位将在2027年前被彻底碾压（这基本就是他的布局）。我们正处于一个跨世代的牛市，将轻松达到互联网泡沫的10倍规模，并将持续到2030年代。”
伯里在今年5月的 Substack 帖子中也自我反思，承认自己“因多次预言崩盘而成为一个梗”。
他说：“不过，我在2000年判断正确，在2007年判断正确。2019年也判断正确，受益于新冠疫情，我在2021年中预测了迷因股崩盘，并在2023年预测了银行股的上涨。”
Krinsky 表示，他认为芯片股的反弹不会持续，因为许多在7月被套牢的投资者会在价格反弹至阻力位时成为“机会型卖家”。
Jones Trading 的 Michael O'Rourke 则提醒关注 AI 代币价格的崩跌。“在 AI 热潮推动标普500上涨6%的同一时期，Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index 下跌了7.2%，今年迄今仅上涨3.66%，而在5月时曾上涨高达65%。”他写道。代币价格崩跌使大型语言模型的开发者难以实现盈利，“而大量的基础建设都依赖于它们的需求。”
——Barbara Kollmeyer
The S&P 500 just hit a new high. 'Big Short' investor Michael Burry thinks it could bring a 1987-style fall.
08/05/26 7:05 AM
He's sticking to a bearish chip bet
Michael Burry warns of echoes of 1987 after the S&P 500 reached a new record high.
Among those weighing in on the S&P 500's first closing high in 42 sessions was Michael Burry, the investor famed for predicting the housing market crash and portrayed in "The Big Short."
"I continue to believe it is possible we are near a major top, and possible a 1987-type fall, but the S&P 500 making new highs will likely bring new money into the market," Burry said early Wednesday on X, in an excerpt from his Substack post.
On Oct. 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 22.6% in an event known as "Black Monday," which remains its worst-ever one-day percentage drop.
Burry said he's maintaining a bet that chip stocks will fall, via put options on the iShares Semiconductor ETF SOXX and "short position in the equity" - when an investor borrows shares they don't own and sells them in hopes of buying them back cheaper later and profiting. In late 2025, Burry's Scion Asset Management first revealed its AI-trade pessimism with short positions on Palantir Technologies (PLTR) and Nvidia (NVDA).
Even with its latest earnings-fueled rally, Palantir's stock is down from November, when Burry disclosed in a regulatory filing that he was betting against the firm. Nvidia's stock has risen in value, but not dramatically. Burry has recommended several other stock trades since then.
"Remember, the market going up on falling volatility forces vol-targeting funds to leverage up, and brings leverage from other momentum strategies into play," he said Wednesday. That refers to systematic strategies employed by hedge funds and other big investors automatically buying when volatility is down. However, those positions can quickly reverse if the situation changes, sending stocks lower.
The Cboe Volatility Index VIX, known as Wall Street's "fear gauge," climbed 4% to 16.5 on Tuesday, but it is down 21% over the past five sessions.
In an excerpt from his Substack, Burry referenced BTIG Research's Jonathan Krinsky, who noted the S&P 500 climbed 5% over four trading days to a new high on Tuesday, something seen only three other times in the last 30 years.
"One was 3/21/00, basically at the top of the 1990s tech media telecom bubble. The other two were 4/23/99 - roughly when most silly dot coms public at the time started crashing, and 11/9/20," Burry said. He shared Krinsky's chart showing how those last two episodes weren't the best times to buy:
Burry also revealed some new positions, according to reports. He exited long positions and call options on Microsoft (MSFT), closed short positions and puts on Oracle (ORCL), and closed out January 2026 Palantir (PLTR) puts, though he is still short that stock.
Palantir shares surged 29% on Tuesday for the biggest one-day gain since February 2024 after blowout earnings. He rolled his Nvidia bearish puts into June 2027 and his Invesco QQQ QQQ short position into February 2027.
Some pushed back at his crash call, such as Kip Herriage, managing partner and founder of Vertical Research Advisory, who wrote in an X post: "Barring an alien attack, in a bull market of this breadth & strength, Burry is going to see his short positions get absolutely smoked into 2027 (which is essentially how he's positioned). We're in a generational bull market that will easily 10 x dot-com results. It will run well into the 2030s."
In a self-critique of his own calls in a May Substack post, he admitted to being "a meme for the number of times I have called a crash."
"Still, I got it right in 2000, got it right in 2007. Got it right in 2019, helped by COVID, and I called the meme stock crash in mid 2021," and called the bank-stock run in 2023, he said.
Krinsky said he doesn't think the chip rally will last because many investors who got burned in July will become " opportunistic sellers as prices rebound into resistance."
Jones Trading's Michael O'Rourke wants us to pay attention to collapsing AI-token prices. "In the same span that an AI rally drove the S&P 500 higher by 6%, the Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index declined 7.2% and is only up 3.66% year-to-date after being up as much as 65% in May," he writes. Collapsing prices make it tough for the makers of large language models to attain profitability "and so much of this build-out is predicated on their demand."
-Barbara Kollmeyer
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08-05-26 0705ET
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