摩根士丹利：标普500正重现 2021 年的市场格局
https://www.morningstar.com/news/market ... an-stanley
作者：Nora Redmond
2026 年 7 月 27 日 9:51 AM
随着更多公司采用人工智能工具，投资者正转向高质量的超大盘股票。
高质量的超大盘股票目前约占标普500指数的 42%。
摩根士丹利表示，标普500近期的表现与五年前投资者开始趋于保守时的情况相似。
该投行的策略师团队（由 Michael Wilson 领衔）在周一发布的报告中写道：“当前的市场格局类似于 2021 年初至年中，当时在疫情后早期周期反弹之后，市场领导权开始向高质量股票转移。”
摩根士丹利指出，更高的利润率如今可能取决于人工智能工具的采用，而预测上调最明显的公司往往是那些具备中性到强定价能力、且 AI 是其业务核心的企业。
高质量的超大盘股票——其盈利增长基于强劲的基本面与未来盈利能力预期——约占标普500指数的 42%。低质量股票——可能更依赖债务、盈利更波动——占该指数略低于三分之一。该行列举了苹果（AAPL）、美光科技（MU）和可口可乐（KO）作为各自行业中表现优于大多数公司的高质量股票。
策略师们写道，如果伊朗战争升级，或美联储在周二和周三的会议上决定加息，标普500可能会下跌至 7000 点附近，但“质量轮动”应当支撑指数的强势，甚至有助于扩大市场参与度。
他们表示：“即便标普500上涨、增长增强，弱资产负债表、高贝塔增长以及低质量盈利因子已经开始表现不佳。今天的情况类似：我们的因子研究偏好高自由现金流收益率、低每股收益波动、强资产负债表以及高利润率。”
策略师们还指出，整体通胀再次上升——几乎与 2021 年的水平完全一致。当时通胀冲击被视为过渡性因素，而如今也可能被视为暂时性的，因为能源价格上涨。
The S&P 500 is echoing its 2021 setup, according to Morgan Stanley
07/27/26 9:51 AM
Investors have been pivoting toward high-quality megacap stocks as more companies adopt artificial-intelligence tools
High-quality megacap stocks now represent around 42% of the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 has recently resembled the way it looked five years ago, when investors started to play it safer, according to Morgan Stanley.
"The current setup resembles early-to-mid 2021, when leadership shifted toward quality after an early-cycle rebound post-covid," strategists at the investment bank led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note published Monday.
Higher profit margins are now likely to depend on the adoption of artificial-intelligence tools, with Morgan Stanley pointing out that forecast upgrades are most prominent among companies that have neutral to strong pricing power and where AI is core to the business.
High-quality megacap stocks, for which earnings growth is based on strong fundamentals and projected future profitability, make up about 42% of the S&P 500 SPX. Low-quality stocks, which may rely more heavily on debt and generate more volatile earnings, represent just under one-third of the index, according the New York-headquartered bank. It listed Apple (AAPL), Micron Technology (MU) and Coca Cola (KO) as high-quality stocks that outperform most other companies in their respective sectors.
While a decline toward the 7,000 mark is possible for the S&P 500 if the war in Iran escalates or the Federal Reserve decides to raise interest rates at its meeting Tuesday and Wednesday, the "quality rotation" should support the strength of the index and even help to broaden participation, the strategists wrote.
"Weak balance sheets, high-beta growth, and low quality earnings factors started to underperform even as the S&P 500 advanced and growth strengthened," they said. "Today looks similar: our factor work favors high free-cash-flow yield, low [earnings-per-share] variability, strong balance sheets and high margins."
Headline inflation is also once again on the rise - and almost exactly in line with where it was in 2021, the strategists said, adding that back then, the shock was put down to being transitional, and today it could also be seen as temporary because of rising energy prices.
-Nora Redmond