NACHO
《华尔街正在形成“NACHO 交易” - 华尔街日报》
你可能听说过 TACO 交易。现在，华尔街又出现了一个从德州墨西哥风味菜单上借来的新缩写。
这就是 NACHO，意为 “Not A Chance Hormuz Opens”（霍尔木兹海峡不可能开放）。其核心观点是：这个对全球能源供应至关重要的航道将继续处于实质性关闭状态，直到其封锁带来的经济代价 - 包括更高的油价和加速的通胀 - 累积到难以承受的程度。
这个词也是对过去一年市场上流行的 TACO 交易 的一种呼应。所谓“TACO”（Trump Always Chickens Out，特朗普总会退缩）最早出现在去年春天，当时特朗普总统收回了一些令市场震荡的关税措施，引发市场强劲反弹。
“我从未相信过 TACO 这个梗，”诺贝尔经济学奖得主 保罗·克鲁格曼 在一篇推动该词流行的文章中写道，“但 NACHO 看起来是对的。霍尔木兹海峡不会重新开放，除非其关闭造成的经济损害变得更加严重。”
周一，所谓的 NACHO 交易迹象已经显现。此前美伊外交在周末几乎没有进展，而特朗普表示两国之间的停火协议正处于“极度危急的生命维持状态”。
美国油价上涨 2.8%，收于约每桶 98 美元；基准 10 年期美债收益率从前一交易日的 4.364% 升至 4.411%。根据 CME FedWatch，交易员目前认为美联储在年底前降息的概率不到 5%。
尽管如此，美股仍小幅创下新高，能源股上涨以及对 人工智能交易 的热情回升推动主要指数走强。芯片股继续狂飙：美光科技上涨 6.5%，高通上涨 8.4%。
标普 500 指数上涨 0.2%，再创历史新高。纳斯达克综合指数也小幅上涨 0.1%，创下新纪录；道琼斯工业平均指数上涨 0.2%，约 95 点。
“现在的经济真的很难被破坏，我认为人们已经意识到这一点。”Sage Advisory 首席投资策略师 Rob Williams 说。他表示，投资者押注由 AI 投资浪潮推动的更广泛经济能够抵御能源市场的价格压力。
不过，一些由冲突造成的痛苦迹象已经显现。伊朗正面临数十年来未见的经济困境。同时，根据 AAA 数据，霍尔木兹海峡的关闭已使美国全国平均汽油价格从战前的不足 3 美元升至如今的每加仑 4.52 美元。
但交易员对这些风险不以为意，他们的乐观情绪受到强劲劳动力市场和亮眼企业财报的支撑。随着第一季度财报季接近尾声，标普 500 成分股整体利润超预期幅度达到 18.2%，远高于过去五年的平均水平 7.3%（FactSet 数据）。
并非所有人都相信这波涨势能够持续。
“在害怕错过（FOMO）和动量因子的历史性飙升推动下，投资者将美股推向新的历史高点。对通胀的担忧（已推高利率）以及美联储降息概率下降，都不再重要。”摩根士丹利财富管理全球投资委员会在周一早间报告中写道，“我们不相信这种脱节能够持续太久。”
The NACHO Trade Is Taking Shape on Wall Street -- WSJ
05/11/26 5:18 PM
You've heard of the TACO trade. Now there's a new Wall Street acronym borrowed from the pages of a Tex-Mex menu.
Enter NACHO, or "Not A Chance Hormuz Opens." The idea is that the all-important shipping route for global energy supplies will remain effectively shut until the economic costs of its closure -- including higher oil prices and accelerating inflation -- start piling up.
The term is a nod to the "TACO" trade that's made the rounds in markets over the past year. Bets that "Trump Always Chickens Out" first emerged last spring, when President Trump walked back some of his market-rattling tariffs and sparked a sharp rebound.
"I never bought into the TACO meme," Nobel-prize winning economist Paul Krugman wrote in a recent post that helped popularize the term. "But NACHO looks right. Hormuz won't open until the economic damage from its closure becomes much more severe."
Signs of a so-called NACHO trade were evident Monday, after U.S.-Iran diplomacy yielded little progress over the weekend and Trump said the cease-fire between the two countries was on " massive life support."
U.S. oil prices climbed 2.8% to settle at roughly $98 a barrel, while benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.411% , according to Tradeweb, from 4.364% the prior session. Traders now see a less than 5% chance that the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by the end of the year, according to CME FedWatch.
Still, stocks nudged to new records, with rising energy shares and reinvigorated enthusiasm for the artificial- intelligence trade boosting major indexes. Chip-maker stocks extended their blistering rally: Shares of Micron Technology jumped 6.5%, while Qualcomm stock rose 8.4%.
The S&P advanced 0.2% to a new all-time high. The Nasdaq composite also notched a new record, edging 0.1% higher, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2%, or around 95 points.
"It's a really hard economy to wreck right now, and I think people understand that," said Rob Williams, chief investment strategist at Sage Advisory. Investors are betting the broader economy -- juiced by a wave of AI investment - - can overcome price pressures in the energy market, he said.
Still, some signs of pain inflicted by the conflict are already evident. Iran is confronting a level of economic hardship not seen in decades. Meanwhile, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has raised America's national average gasoline prices to $4.52 a gallon as of today, from just under $3 before the start of the war, according to the AAA.
But traders have shrugged off those risks, their optimism bolstered by a resilient labor market and recent crop of standout corporate earnings. With the first-quarter earnings season drawing to a close, S&P 500 companies are exceeding profit estimates by 18.2% in aggregate, according to FactSet analysts, well above the five-year average of 7.3%.
Not everyone is convinced the rally can last.
"Investors, driven by the fear of missing out and a historic surge in momentum factors, have taken US equities surging to new all-time highs. Concerns about inflation, which have pushed interest rates higher, and the reduced probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts have ceased to matter," the Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Global Investment Committee wrote in a Monday morning note. "We are not convinced that this disconnect can persist for long."
Write to Hannah Erin Lang at hannaherin.lang@wsj.com and Caitlin McCabe at caitlin.mccabe@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
05-11-26 1634ET
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