菲律宾船被拖走
81新闻视频。
让ai分析了一下。
结合24年中国在南海电子战搞得菲律宾部分地区失去信号的事情。
Yes — when viewed together, the recent video of China towing a Philippine vessel (August 1, 2025) and past localized electronic warfare incidents (laser attacks, jamming, physical boarding) strongly suggest a shift in de facto control dynamics at Second Thomas Shoal and surrounding areas of the South China Sea.
Is this a "shift of control"? — In many ways, yes, but context matters.
Let’s break it down:
1. Physical Control: Yes — China is tightening its grip
Towing a Philippine ship — publicly broadcasted for the first time — marks a highly symbolic escalation. It demonstrates:
China’s operational confidence
A desire to normalize its enforcement actions
A move from ambiguous “blockade” to overt assertion of police powers
Add this to:
Laser harassment (2023)
Physical boarding & injury (June 2024)
Localized jamming and signal disruptions
Constant Chinese militia and coastguard presence
Together, these amount to tactical dominance in key flashpoints like Second Thomas Shoal.
2. Legal Control: No — but de facto control is shifting
Under UNCLOS and the 2016 PCA ruling, China’s claims at Second Thomas Shoal have no legal basis.
The Philippines continues to assert legal sovereignty, and its resupply missions aim to maintain presence aboard the grounded BRP Sierra Madre.
But: Legal rights don’t equal enforcement — and China is increasingly able to dictate who gets access, how, and when.
3. Information & Electronic Space: China controls the narrative on the water
China controls gray-zone escalation through:
Information warfare (framing Manila as the aggressor)
Electronic warfare (jamming GPS/comms at will)
Cyber surveillance
Media timing (releasing video of towing after Manila's denials)
Philippines and its allies are on the defensive, reacting to Chinese initiatives rather than shaping them.
Philippines and its allies are on the defensive, reacting to Chinese initiatives rather than shaping them.
4. What’s actually shifting?
Domain 2023 Status 2025 Status Control Shift?
Physical presence Philippines resupplying China towing, blocking 
Yes
Communication domain Occasional jamming Tactical dominance Yes
Legal position Manila supported by UNCLOS ruling Still valid 
No shift legally
Narrative framing Competing views China controlling media angle Yes
Strategic Implication
China appears to be moving toward full operational denial of Philippine activities at Second Thomas Shoal.
This is not yet a full military occupation — but it’s a strategic coercion campaign designed to:
Undermine Philippine resolve
Force the abandonment of Sierra Madre
Establish irreversible fait accompli control without firing a shot
Final Thought
Yes — taken together, the towing incident, the ongoing EW harassment, and China’s persistent presence show a shift in the control paradigm from contested to functionally enforced by China, at least in operational terms.
Would you like a strategic forecast on how this might evolve in the next 6–12 months?