原文：https://longportapp.com/en/news/233749548
4月2日/本星期三是美国即将调高进口关税的日子 - 具体什么情况取决于 Trump 了。然而美国银行策略师 Michael Hartnett 认为更关键的日子是4月4日/星期五 - 即美国3月非农就业数据发布的日子。
4月4日：真正的市场转折点，两种可能的市场反应
在最新 “资金流向报告”（Flow Show）中，Hartnett 说特朗普当局可能会刻意淡化4月2日的影响，而非像市场预期的那样大肆渲染。
主要原因是避免引发第二波通胀压力 - 考虑到通胀仍是美国经济和政治的敏感话题，特朗普政府有足够的动机避免关税政策引发新一轮价格上涨。
相比之下，Hartnett 强调4月4日发布的3月就业报告将成为判断经济软着陆或硬着陆的关键指标，并将更直接地影响股市4月走势。Hartnett 在报告中详细描绘了两种就业数据情景及其可能的市场反应：
软着陆情景 (新增就业10-20万)：表明经济未进入衰退，标普500指数近期的5500点低位将得到有效支撑，零售和房屋建筑股票有望出现明显反弹。（换而言之，Hartnett 相信这一情景将缓解市场对经济硬着陆的担忧，支撑风险资产价格稳定。）
硬着陆情景 (新增就业不足10万)：标普500指数可能在4月创下新低，全球股市、银行股和信贷市场也将随之下跌；特朗普当局可能被迫迅速转向推动减税政策以刺激经济。（也就是说 Hartnett 相信这种情景将证实经济减缓速度超出预期，进而触发市场避险反应。）
April 4: The Real Market Turning Point, Two Possible Market Reactions
In the latest "Flow Show" report, Hartnett states that the Trump administration may deliberately downplay the impact of April 2, rather than exaggerating it as the market expects.
The main reason is to avoid triggering a second wave of inflationary pressure—considering that inflation remains a sensitive topic in the U.S. economy and politics, the Trump administration has ample motivation to prevent tariff policies from causing a new round of price increases.
In contrast, Hartnett emphasizes that the March employment report released on April 4 will become a key indicator for judging whether the economy is experiencing a soft or hard landing, and will more directly influence the market's performance in April. In the report, Hartnett details two employment data scenarios and their possible market reactions:
Soft Landing Scenario (new jobs of 100,000 to 200,000): Indicates that the economy has not entered a recession, and the recent low of 5,500 points for the S&P 500 index will receive effective support, with retail and housing construction stocks likely to see a significant rebound. (In other words, Hartnett believes this scenario will alleviate market concerns about a hard landing for the economy and support the stability of risk asset prices.)
Hard Landing Scenario (new jobs less than 100,000): The S&P 500 index may hit a new low in April, with global stock markets, bank stocks, and the credit market declining accordingly, and the Trump administration may be forced to quickly pivot to promote tax cuts to stimulate the economy. (In other words, Hartnett believes this will confirm that the pace of economic slowdown exceeds expectations, triggering a sharp rise in market risk aversion.)
Additionally, Hartnett believes that the performance of U.S. bank stocks remains a core barometer for assessing market health, and whether it can hold the important technical level of BKX 120 points is worth close attention.
