网上提到 Navitas 的一个问题是和中国合作太多，未来的股价受政治影响很大。
Large Cap Analysis : Navitas
Feeding Time: Large Cap Analysis : Navitas (NVTS) Oversold Market Conditions
Date: Nov. 26, 2024
Ticker: NVTS
Investment Direction: Go Long
Thesis: Recommended Buy Range: $2 - $3
-1. Company Background:
Navitas Semiconductor is a global leader in gallium nitride (GaN) power chips, established in 2014 and went public via SPAC on NASDAQ in 2021. It is the first company to successfully list with GaN power chips as its core business. The company leads the industry in materials, devices, chip design, applications, systems, and marketing. The founder holds over 300 patents, making it a robust entity that integrates advanced technology with performance growth.
-2. Financial Status:
For the first half of 2024, Navitas reported cumulative revenue of $43.64 million, up from $31.42 million in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.90%. The net loss for the first half of 2024 was $26.01 million, significantly down from a loss of $121 million in the previous year, a reduction of 78.49%. The basic earnings per share stood at -$0.14, compared to -$0.75 in the prior year.
Navitas anticipates a net income of $22 million for Q3 2024, with a fluctuation of $0.5 million. The expected non-GAAP gross margin for Q3 is 40%, with a fluctuation of 50 basis points. Non-GAAP operating expenses are projected to be around $21.5 million. This year marks a turning point for the company's operational performance, with a positive net profit expected for the full year.
-3. Industry Advantage and Position:
Navitas holds a leading position in the GaN power chip market, with a market share exceeding 30%, making it the largest supplier of GaN power chips in the global consumer power market. The company’s products are highly competitive, characterized by high efficiency, high power density, and significant energy-saving benefits.
Navitas's downstream industry includes mobile devices, consumer electronics, enterprise applications, electric transportation, and renewable energy markets. As a leader in GaN power chips, Navitas is likely to benefit from industry growth, presenting a promising future.
The company collaborates with top industry players, establishing stable partnerships with renowned companies such as Lenovo, Xiaomi, OPPO, and Amazon. It has also announced plans to expand its distribution partnerships for next-generation silicon carbide (SiC) power semiconductors in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA), further solidifying its market position and growth potential.
Technical Analysis:
The overall stock price trend is downward, primarily due to tightening U.S. trade policies towards China, particularly after Trump's potential re-election in 2025, which will increasingly restrict Chinese semiconductor and high-end manufacturing enterprises, exerting significant pressure on listed companies’ stock prices.
Recently, Navitas's stock price has dropped to historical lows, largely due to the resolution of the U.S. election, increased stock sell-offs in the Chinese semiconductor sector, and heightened short-selling, resulting in a pronounced decline:
Considering the company's fundamental performance, the current stock price is $2.4 per share, compared to $12.8 per share at the time of its SPAC listing.
As of November 13, the RSI value has fallen to around 12, with decreasing trading volume, indicating that the stock price has likely bottomed out.
[Other Information]
On November 12, 2024, the company announced an expansion of its distribution partnerships for next-generation silicon carbide (SiC) power semiconductors in EMEA.
Navitas is the only company focused on next-generation power semiconductors and is a leader in next-generation GeneSiC™ SiC and GaNFast™ GaN power semiconductors. GeneSiC's proprietary "trench-assisted planar" technology, backed by 20 years of SiC innovation, offers world-leading performance across temperature ranges for high-power, high-reliability applications with high-speed, low-temperature operation.
Richardson Electronics, Ltd. will continue to focus on the GeneSiC product line, expanding from North America to EMEA. This includes Navitas's latest 3rd generation fast MOSFET series, which provides high-speed, low-temperature performance, ensuring a 25°C reduction in case temperature and three times the lifespan of other SiC products, achieving unprecedented industry-leading performance, reliability, and quality.
These devices feature a complete product range from 650V to 6,500V, including bare chips, suitable for users needing flexible design solutions, particularly for higher power applications, including but not limited to renewable energy and storage, motor drives, induction heating and welding, battery charging, and high-voltage DC-DC conversion.
Oversold Analysis:
The overall downward trend in the stock price is primarily driven by the tightening of U.S.-China trade policies. This pressure has intensified since Donald Trump was elected U.S. president in 2025, further restricting China’s high-tech manufacturing sectors like semiconductors and chips, leading to significant downward pressure on the company’s stock.
Recently, Navitas shares have hit an all-time low due to the aftermath of the U.S. election. The sell-off and shorting of Chinese semiconductor stocks have accelerated, resulting in continuous declines. The stock is currently in an oversold condition:
Relative to IPO Price: The company’s IPO price on SPSC was $12.80 per share, whereas the current price is $2.40 per share, only 20% of the IPO price, indicating it has significantly underperformed.
RSI Indicator: On November 13, the 6-day RSI value dropped to around 12%, a clear oversold signal. Additionally, trading volumes have continued to decline, suggesting that the stock has likely reached a bottom.
PB Valuation:
Since the company is currently unprofitable, the PE ratio may not accurately reflect its true value. Therefore, we refer to the PB ratio for evaluation.
Vertical Comparison: As of November 25, Navitas’ PB ratio stands at 1.36x, significantly lower than its historical average of 3.42x.
Horizontal Comparison: Among publicly listed companies in the U.S. semiconductor and equipment industry, the median PB ratio is 7.6x, with an average of 12.62x. This indicates that Navitas’ valuation is well below the market’s fair value.
Based on these metrics, we estimate that a fair PB ratio of 3x would correspond to a stock price of $7–$8 per share. Thus, buying at the current price of $2–$3 per share offers a potential target price of $7–$8 per share, with an expected return of 167%.
Conclusion:
It is recommended to buy within the $2–$3 per share range, with a target price of $7–$8 per share.
