Democrats' $1.9 trillion bet that blew up
Story by Neil Irwin (translated using Google Translate)
近四年前，拜登政府和国会民主党人以美国救援计划的形式下了 1.9 万亿美元的赌注。他们输了，因为这导致通货膨胀飙升，引发了选民的大规模不满，并迫使唐纳德·特朗普重返白宫。
重要性：在下一次经济衰退中，政客和政策制定者可能会更犹豫是否推出推动美国从大流行引发的危机中快速复苏的那种计划。
快速赶上：通过 ARP，民主党人押注经济刺激不足的风险大于过度刺激的风险。他们决心不重复 2010 年代的错误，当时失业率在全球金融危机结束后很长一段时间内仍然居高不下。
ARP 包括向美国家庭支付 1,300 美元，这些家庭已经坐拥巨额疫情储蓄，企业在加大招聘力度时获得慷慨的失业救济，以及向财务状况良好的州政府提供额外现金。
民主党人对中间派和保守派经济学家的担忧不以为然，他们警告说，累积刺激措施——1.9 万亿美元的 ARP 是在前总统特朗普实施的 2.7 万亿美元疫情救济措施之后推出的——是通货膨胀的根源。
他们说：“总的来说，通货膨胀的上升对穷人的伤害尤为严重，并且与对政府的信任度降低有关，”这些批评者中最著名的拉里·萨默斯 (Larry Summers) 在 2021 年 5 月写道。
“进步人士可能会考虑通货膨胀在 1968 年理查德·尼克松 (Richard M. Nixon) 和 1980 年罗纳德·里根 (Ronald Reagan) 当选中所起的作用。”
现实情况是：2021 年开始并在 2022 年达到顶峰的通胀激增与全球供应链因 COVID 停工和劳动力短缺而陷入混乱有关，因为许多潜在工人都待在家里。
这种情况发生在全球，即使在财政行动较为温和的国家也是如此。
是的，但是：这并不意味着美国的超大规模刺激措施没有产生通胀影响。例如，旧金山联邦储备银行的一项分析发现，财政政策可能占 2021 年通胀的约 3 个百分点，总计约 7%。
如果更为克制的财政政策导致通胀峰值下降几个百分点，美联储就不会认为有必要像现在这样加息，从而减轻近期经济痛苦的另一个因素。
超大规模财政行动的存在本身可能在选民心中将拜登的政策与高物价的痛苦联系起来。
ARP 的好处（尤其是那 1,300 美元的支票）很快就被遗忘了，它帮助推动的快速复苏被视为理所当然。
字里行间：拜登政府指出，过去两年通胀率下降（在就业市场普遍良好的情况下）是一个巨大的胜利。
过去几年，美国经济扩张的速度令世界羡慕不已，比其他大型富裕国家快得多，而 2021 年的财政行动帮助推动了这一扩张。
但选民似乎更关心通胀的累积影响——现在的价格比 4 年前高出 21%——而不是年通胀率已放缓至 2.4% 的事实。
底线：在拜登执政初期，自由派经济学家满口热情洋溢地谈论如何打造“高压”劳动力市场和“让经济火爆”。结果，民主党人吃尽了苦头。
Nearly four years ago, the Biden administration and Congressional Democrats made a $1.9 trillion bet in the form of the American Rescue Plan. They lost, as it contributed to a surge in inflation that fueled massive voter discontent and Donald Trump's return to the White House.
Why it matters: In the next recession, politicians and policymakers may be more hesitant to unleash the type of programs that drove America's rapid recovery from the pandemic-induced crisis.
Catch up fast: With the ARP, Democrats wagered that the risk of under-stimulating the economy was greater than the risk of over-stimulating. They were determined not to repeat the mistakes of the 2010s, when unemployment remained elevated long after the Global Financial Crisis was long over.
The ARP included $1,300 payments to American families at a families that were already sitting on hefty pandemic savings, generous unemployment benefits at a time businesses were ramping up hiring, and extra cash for state governments that were in fine financial shape.
Democrats shrugged off the concerns of centrist and conservative economists who warned that the cumulative stimulus — the $1.9 trillion ARP came on the heels of $2.7 trillion in pandemic relief enacted under former President Trump — was a recipe for inflation.
What they were saying: "In general, increases in inflation disproportionately hurt the poor and are associated with reductions in trust in government," Larry Summers, the most prominent of those critics, wrote in May 2021.
"Progressives might consider the role that inflation played in electing Richard M. Nixon in 1968 and Ronald Reagan in 1980."
Reality check: The surge in inflation that started in 2021 and peaked in 2022 was linked to snarling of global supply chains due to COVID shutdowns and labor shortages as many would-be workers stayed close to home.
It occurred globally, even in countries with more modest fiscal action.
Yes, but: That doesn't mean the super-sized U.S. stimulus didn't have an inflationary impact. An analysis from the San Francisco Fed, for example, found that fiscal policy could account for about 3 percentage points of 2021 inflation, which totaled about 7%.
If more restrained fiscal policy had resulted in inflation peaking even a couple of percentage points lower, the Fed would not have seen the need to raise rates by as much as it did, lessening another vector of recent economic pain.
The very existence of the super-sized fiscal action may have created a clearer linkage in voters' minds between Biden's policies and the pain of high prices.
The benefits of the ARP — those $1,300 checks in particularly — were quickly forgotten, and the rapid recovery it helped fuel taken for granted.
Between the lines: The Biden administration has pointed to falling inflation over the last two years — amid a generally favorable job market — as a great triumph.
The speed of the U.S. expansion the last few years has been the envy of the world, much faster than other large rich countries, and the 2021 fiscal action helped jump-started it.
But voters appeared more concerned about the cumulative impact of inflation — prices are 21% higher now than 4 years ago — than the fact that the annual inflation rate has slowed to 2.4%.
The bottom line: At the beginning of the Biden years, liberal economists were full of enthusiastic talk about creating a "high-pressure" labor market and "running the economy hot." As it turned out, Democrats got burned.
这篇文章 讲得很不错。所以 我转贴 过来了。原帖 在此
https://newmitbbs.com/viewtopic.php?t=635560
