A handful of pro-Trump bettors have dumped more than $25 million into Polymarket, swaying election odds in his favor
BYSYDNEY LAKE
October 18, 2024 at 2:03 PM CDT
With just about 20 days until the presidential election, voters have turned to polls and prediction markets for some clairvoyance on its outcome. Recent polls show an ultra-close race with Vice President Kamala Harris just barely in the lead, but prediction markets like Polymarket and PredictIt tell a very different story with former President Donald Trump far ahead.
On Friday, Polymarket’s “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market showed bettors giving Trump a whopping 60.1% chance of winning, while Harris’ chances were only 39.8%. That’s a massive difference from the start of October when the candidates were in dead heat.
To be sure, polls have also tightened, and due to the Electoral College small shifts in a few states can lead to a decisive outcome. Still, some experts praise prediction markets for their accuracy under the premise that since real money is on the line, it serves as a better indicator of voter sentiment. But there are signs prediction markets—Polymarket in particular—have been manipulated by pro-Trump bettors.
On the “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market, four users have flooded the market with massive bets: Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie, the Wall Street Journal first pointed out. In all, their bets account for more than 41 million shares that Trump will win, amounting to nearly $26 million in current value. These four accounts have been pumping money into the presidential prediction markets during the past few weeks, even as recently as yesterday.
“I believe there has been a coordinated effort to change the perception of this race,” Tom Bonier, senior adviser at research firm TargetSmart and veteran political strategist, told Fortune. “A central argument has emerged in the closing weeks of this campaign: strength versus weakness. Donald Trump’s persona, and therefore his support from voters, relies on being seen as strong. But if the public perception is that he will lose, that all falls apart.”
To that point, Trump supporters, including Tesla CEO Elon Musk, have drawn attention to the fact the former president is leading the prediction markets.
“More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line,” Musk posted on X earlier this month.
Prediction markets, which have grown in popularity, allow traders to buy and sell shares on the outcome of a given event, like whether Trump will get impeached or who will win the next Super Bowl.
Traders buy shares depending on which outcome they think is more likely. Share prices or “odds” rise and fall depending on demand, so if the event happens the way the trader predicted, the contract or “bet” will rise to $1 and pay out—or fall to $0 if it does not.
Polymarket did not respond to Fortune’s request for comment about whether they’re investigating potential influence or interference. Sources told the Journal that Polymarket is investigating the recent election bets with help from outside experts.