今天非农数据决定降息幅度？

[hehe09]

今天周五非农数据决定降息幅度？目前美联储利率观测器显示，降息0.25的概率是60%，降息0.5的概率是40%。

感觉上，非农数据因为统计问题，表现比较好的可能性大一些，那降息0.5的概率会缩减。

大家觉得呢？

另外，
8:45 am New York Fed President Williams speaks
11:00 am Fed Gov. Christopher Waller speaks

[kc130]

Target Rate (bps)	Probability (%)	1 Day (4 Sep 2024)	1 Week (29 Aug 2024)	1 Month (5 Aug 2024)
475-500	41.0%	44.0%	34.0%	85.0%
500-525	59.0%	56.0%	66.0%	15.0%

Data as of 5 Sep 2024 05:11:17 CT

[kc130]

缓降利多

[who]

缓降利多

老鲍赶紧来学习一下

[hehe09]

Target Rate (bps)	Probability (%)	1 Day (4 Sep 2024)	1 Week (29 Aug 2024)	1 Month (5 Aug 2024)
475-500	41.0%	44.0%	34.0%	85.0%
500-525	59.0%	56.0%	66.0%	15.0%

Data as of 5 Sep 2024 05:11:17 CT

这表格是哪个网站可以看到？能否给个链接？谢谢！

[kc130]

Target Rate (bps)	Probability (%)	1 Day (4 Sep 2024)	1 Week (29 Aug 2024)	1 Month (5 Aug 2024)
475-500	41.0%	44.0%	34.0%	85.0%
500-525	59.0%	56.0%	66.0%	15.0%

Data as of 5 Sep 2024 05:11:17 CT

这表格是哪个网站可以看到？能否给个链接？谢谢！

ＣＭＥ　ＦｅｄＷａｔｃｈ

[kc130]

Target Rate (bps)	Now (16 Sep)	1 Day (13 Sep)	1 Week (9 Sep)	1 Month (16 Aug)
475-500	63.0%	50.0%	30.0%	25.0%
500-525	37.0%	50.0%	70.0%	75.0%

Data as of 16 Sep 2024 08:30:23 CT

[Nimitz]

Target Rate (bps)	Now (16 Sep)	1 Day (13 Sep)	1 Week (9 Sep)	1 Month (16 Aug)
475-500	63.0%	50.0%	30.0%	25.0%
500-525	37.0%	50.0%	70.0%	75.0%

Data as of 16 Sep 2024 08:30:23 CT

So it favors a half percent cut?

[kc130]

Target Rate (bps)	Now (16 Sep)	1 Day (13 Sep)	1 Week (9 Sep)	1 Month (16 Aug)
475-500	63.0%	50.0%	30.0%	25.0%
500-525	37.0%	50.0%	70.0%	75.0%

Data as of 16 Sep 2024 08:30:23 CT

So it favors a half percent cut?

ｎｏｗ，　ａｓ－ｉｓ