投资者对特朗普的伊朗“暂停”并不买账，就连他在 Truth Social 上的发帖也救不了市场
Investors are snubbing Trump's Iran pause. Even his Truth Social posts may not save the market
https://www.morningstar.com/news/market ... the-market
Kenneth Rapoza
03/26/26 12:56 PM
中文摘要
中文摘要总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布对伊朗冲突进行五天“暂停”的举动，但金融市场并未因此回暖。投资者并不相信这段短暂的缓和能真正改变局势，市场依旧疲弱。
市场并未买账
- 标普500指数过去五天仍下跌，整体横盘。
- 即便油价短暂回落，股市也没有恢复。
- 投资者对这种“特朗普发帖 → 市场短暂反弹 → 再度下跌”的循环感到厌倦。
经济学家指出，市场最讨厌不确定性，而当前的中东局势正是高度不确定。
3月31日的“伊朗 = 委内瑞拉 II”设想
文章提到一个政治时间点：
3月31日被一些人视为美国可能试图“快速介入、宣布胜利、迅速撤出”的期限。
但随着时间拖延到4月，这种乐观情绪会迅速消失，全球政治与经济预期都会重新定价。
通胀风险正在上升
- 法国巴黎银行上调了2026年的通胀预期。
- 如果冲突持续，油价将推高通胀。
- 欧洲央行也警告可能加息。
所谓的“30天停火”几乎不可能发生
报道指出，特朗普政府提出的延长停火方案包含一个“15点投降计划”，但据称伊朗已经拒绝，因此30天停火不太可能实现。
三种可能的战争走向
- 美国的地缘政治目标：降低霍尔木兹海峡风险，减少全球对伊朗石油依赖。
- 以色列的安全目标：以色列可能坚持继续行动。
- 伊朗的战略目标：伊朗可能希望拖延冲突，甚至影响美国大选。
只要以色列或伊朗任何一方坚持，战争就不会结束。
对美国经济的影响
伊朗冲突相当于对美国经济施加了“意外的50个基点紧缩”。
如果油价维持在每桶75美元附近，通胀压力将给美联储主席鲍威尔继续鹰派政策的理由。
这对特朗普和共和党在中期选举前都不利。
更广泛的风险
- 全球燃料和化肥短缺可能让世界迅速对这场战争失去耐心。
- 海湾国家可能推迟对美国的投资承诺。
- 股市脆弱，投资者耐心极薄。
套用分析师 Blitz 的话：
“特朗普的市场保护伞（Trump put）正在变得摇摇欲坠。”
英文原文
Trump hoped his Iran reprieve would bring a stock-market miracle - but investors aren't buying and time is short.
The stock market's expected "Trump put" over Iran hasn't materialized.
Markets will stop trading Trump's performative gestures and focus on the realities on the ground in the Gulf. That's a reality Trump does not control.
President Donald Trump's five-day pause in the Iran conflict - which ends on March 28 - is obviously meant to calm investors and keep the U.S. stock market's decadelong bull market going. The fifth day is two trading sessions away. By some miracle, maybe the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA could approach 50,000 again by Friday. What happens on Saturday? With thousands of U.S. Marines and the 82nd Airborne on their way to the Persian Gulf, we should assume the Iran conflict continues.
The stock market is flat. The S&P 500 SPX is trading sideways and has declined over the past five trading days. It has not recovered despite WTI (CL.1) oil futures falling briefly to $88 early Wednesday before climbing back above $90 late Wednesday.
Stock investors aren't buying Trump's pause. It's this market whipsawing that American and global investors are growing tired of. It all stinks. For now, Trump gets the blame.
One post by Trump on Truth Social can move markets. The president can spark a rally or buy investors a few days of optimism. But a short reprieve only to return to uncertainty is not going to cut it.
"Uncertainty is not something markets price well," Steve Blitz, managing director and chief economist at TS Lombard, wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday. "Equities have an oversized place in household portfolios and corporate behavior. The shift to a sideways trending, volatile equity market is not something anyone is prepared for."
We are approaching the March 31 deadline that imagines Iran as "Venezuela II."
What should investors expect after Friday? We are approaching the March 31 deadline that imagines Iran as " Venezuela II" - get in, declare victory, get out. Optimism erodes the longer this goes into April. Everything reprices. Domestic and global political alignments get reassessed.
It's already happening. BNP Paribas raised its 2026 headline and core CPI forecasts to 3.3% and 3.2%, respectively. Analysts warned of elevated inflation all year. If the war lasts longer than currently priced, inflation will go much higher, BNP said. On Wednesday, the European Central Bank warned about possible rate hikes.
There will be no 30-day pause in the Iran conflict.
Markets will stop trading Trump's performative gestures next week and focus on the realities on the ground in the Gulf. That's a reality Trump does not control.
The administration's five-day pause could become a 30-day pause, contingent on a 15-point surrender plan for Iran that reports say Iran has rejected. There will be no 30-day pause.
There are three views on how this conflict plays out. These views matter to investors trying to time the war's end. One view is the geopolitical view that has the U.S. forcing a derisking of the Strait of Hormuz, forcing countries to reconsider Iranian oil, and maybe rely more on U.S.-produced LNG and allied supply chains.
The other is Israel's point of view on its own security objectives. Iran has a say here. Tehran may be interested in prolonging the war and getting regime change in Washington. If either Israel or Iran prevails, the war continues.
The Iran war has backfired on Trump's campaign against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Instead of delivering lower rates, the Iran conflict has imposed the equivalent of a surprise 50-basis-point (0.50%) tightening on the U.S. economy.
"If oil settles near $75 a barrel - still roughly 30% above the January 7 level - the bleed-through into inflation will hand Powell a clean excuse to stay hawkish into the end of his term," predicted Vlad Signorelli, head of Bretton Woods Research, a macro investment research firm. "That is a bad setup for Trump and a worse one for congressional Republicans heading into the midterms," he added.
Trump can declare victory in Iran and walk away, but can he end the war between Israel and Iran? That is a mystery. Meanwhile, fuel and fertilizer shortages will turn the world off to this war fast. Gulf states will want help with damage repairs, or their promises to invest in the U.S. could be postponed indefinitely.
Patience is paper-thin. Overextended equity markets remain fragile. As Blitz from Lombard said: "The Trump put is proving a bit wobbly."
