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https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
PPI (Apr), 2.4% Vs. 2.5% Est. (prev. 2.7%)
Core PPI, 3.1% Vs. 3.1% Est. (prev. 3.3%)
PPI (Apr) MoM, -0.5% Vs. 0.2% Est. (prev. 0.0%)
Core PPI MoM, -0.4% Vs. 0.3% Est. (prev. 0.4%)
Jobless Claims, 229K Vs. 229K Est. (prev. 228K)
Philly Fed Mfg. Index, -4 Vs. -11 Est. (prev. -26.4)
Retail Sales MoM, 0.1% Vs. 0.0% Est. (prev. 1.4%)
Who Are You?
Here’s a breakdown of how to interpret those economic data points and what they suggest about inflation, employment, and economic momentum:
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PPI (YoY):
• Actual: 2.4%
• Estimate: 2.5%
• Previous: 2.7%
Interpretation: Inflation at the producer level is cooling slightly more than expected, suggesting easing inflationary pressure upstream.
Core PPI (YoY):
• Actual: 3.1%
• Estimate: 3.1%
• Previous: 3.3%
Interpretation: Core inflation (excludes food and energy) also slowed, in line with expectations — this is important for understanding underlying inflation trends.
PPI (MoM):
• Actual: -0.5%
• Estimate: +0.2%
• Previous: 0.0%
Interpretation: A significant monthly drop in producer prices — indicates inflation momentum is declining faster than expected.
Core PPI (MoM):
• Actual: -0.4%
• Estimate: +0.3%
• Previous: +0.4%
Interpretation: A surprising decline in core producer prices — a strong disinflation signal, possibly increasing chances of Fed rate cuts.
⸻
Actual: 229K
Estimate: 229K
Previous: 228K
Interpretation: In line with expectations — no major change in unemployment trends, labor market remains stable.
⸻
Actual: -4
Estimate: -11
Previous: -26.4
Interpretation: Still in contraction territory (negative), but a sharp improvement from last month and better than expected. A positive sign for manufacturing sentiment.
⸻
Actual: +0.1%
Estimate: 0.0%
Previous: +1.4%
Interpretation: Consumer spending slowed significantly compared to the prior month, but slightly beat expectations — suggests resilient but moderating demand.
⸻
Overall Takeaway:
• Inflation (especially producer inflation) is cooling faster than expected, which is dovish for monetary policy.
• Labor market remains steady.
• Manufacturing is improving.
• Consumer spending is slowing, but not collapsing.
Market implication: These figures may increase expectations that the Fed will begin cutting rates sooner or more aggressively, especially given the disinflation signals from PPI.
