关于新罕布什尔州全国第一初选，你需要知道的一切

[牛大春]

看最终差距，如果超过10%，黒莉就很难坚持下去了。

AP 是不是已经 call Trump 了？

Yes.

[shanghaibaba]

New Hampshire has conducted the first presidential primary for more than 100 years and the state government jealously guards its status as the first-in-the-nation primary.

Iowa traditionally conducts its contest earlier than New Hampshire, but that is a caucus, a meeting at a specific time, rather than a primary with secret ballot voting. New Hampshire state law, passed in 1975, requires that its primary be conducted before any other state’s.

Here's everything you need to know about Tuesday's contest:

Who can vote in New Hampshire’s primary? Registered Republicans and Democrats vote in their own primaries, but it’s important to note that in New Hampshire, independent voters can also take part by asking for either a Republican or Democratic ballot.

Who is ahead in New Hampshire? Former President Donald Trump is the clear front-runner and holds 50% support among likely Republican primary voters in the Granite State, according to a new CNN poll. Trump’s closest competitor, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, stands at 39%. Both have gained supporters since the last CNN/UNH poll in early January (when Trump held 39% to Haley’s 32%). Haley has focused on undeclared voters, hoping they can help her against Trump’s committed Republican base.

How many delegates are at stake? New Hampshire gets 22 delegates in the Republican primary process – less than 1% of the total delegates who will vote at the convention this summer. All of the state’s Republican delegates will be awarded to candidates proportionally based on their statewide primary performance, but candidates need to win at least 10% of the vote to be eligible for delegates. Democrats are only giving New Hampshire 10 delegates this year, punishment for conducting the primary earlier than the party wanted.

Why isn't Biden on the ballot? This cycle, the new Democratic early state calendar moved New Hampshire out of its first-in-the-nation position. The state party disregarded that change, choosing to stay with the state-run primary on January 23. As a result, New Hampshire has been docked delegates to the national convention, the primary won’t count for the purposes of awarding delegates, and Biden’s name won’t be on the ballot. There is an organized campaign in the state to write in his name, and the expectation is that write-in votes for him will be reported Tuesday night.

新汗布杉儿和爱二娃这种破州，是不是除了大选初选，其他时候再也没机会上新闻了？