Will NVDA stock price go up or down on February 26 after its earnings report?

[shepherd17]

ChatGPT 的答案：

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter earnings report on February 26, 2025, after the market closes.

As of now, NVDA's stock price is $126.63, reflecting a decrease of $3.72 (approximately 2.86%) from the previous close.

Analysts project a revenue growth of 73%, reaching $38.2 billion, and a net income increase of over 60% to $21 billion for this quarter. Despite these optimistic forecasts, recent market volatility, influenced by economic concerns and competition from companies like China's DeepSeek, has introduced uncertainty.

While many analysts maintain a positive outlook on NVIDIA's long-term prospects, the immediate stock price reaction post-earnings will depend on how the reported figures align with market expectations and any forward-looking statements from the company.

Given these factors, it's challenging to predict with certainty whether NVDA's stock price will rise or fall on February 26. Investors should monitor the earnings release and subsequent market reactions closely to make informed decisions.

[shepherd17]

DeepSeek 的答案：

Predicting short-term stock price movements, especially around earnings reports, is inherently speculative and influenced by numerous unpredictable factors. However, here’s a breakdown of the key considerations for NVIDIA (NVDA) ahead of its earnings report and potential outcomes:

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Key Factors Influencing NVDA’s Stock Price Post-Earnings

1. Earnings Performance vs. Expectations:

   • Beat/Miss: If NVIDIA exceeds Wall Street consensus estimates for revenue, earnings per share (EPS), and margins, the stock could rally. Conversely, a miss could trigger a sell-off.
   • Guidance: Forward-looking statements about future demand (e.g., AI chips, data centers, gaming GPUs) often matter more than past results. Strong guidance could outweigh a mediocre quarter.

2. AI and Data Center Momentum:

   • NVIDIA’s dominance in AI chips (e.g., H100 GPUs) has driven its valuation. Any signs of slowing demand, supply chain improvements, or competitive threats (e.g., AMD, in-house chips from tech giants) will impact sentiment.

3. Market Sentiment:

   • Hype vs. Reality: NVDA’s valuation (P/E ratio ₆₅ as of 2023) reflects high expectations. If results or guidance fail to justify the premium, profit-taking could occur.
   • Macro Risks: Interest rates, geopolitical tensions (e.g., U.S.-China chip restrictions), or broader market volatility could amplify reactions.

4. Technical Factors:

   • Options markets often price in significant volatility (a "gamma squeeze" or "IV crush") around earnings. Traders may hedge positions, causing sharp moves regardless of fundamentals.

5. Historical Patterns:

   • NVIDIA has historically seen large post-earnings swings (e.g., ±10% in a single day). In Q3 2023, the stock surged 14% after a strong AI-driven report.

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Potential Scenarios for February 26

• Bull Case (Stock Rises):

  • Earnings beat + robust guidance (e.g., strong AI/data center growth, inventory normalization in gaming).
  • Announcements of new AI partnerships or product launches (e.g., next-gen Blackwell GPUs).
  • Market optimism about long-term AI adoption outweighing short-term concerns.

• Bear Case (Stock Declines):

  • Earnings miss or weak guidance (e.g., slowing data center growth, gaming underperformance).
  • Concerns about overvaluation or competition eroding margins.
  • Macro headwinds (e.g., recession fears, rising interest rates) spooking tech stocks.

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Why the Outcome Is Uncertain

• Priced-In Expectations: NVIDIA’s stock often moves based on how results compare to already high expectations, not just raw numbers.
• Market Psychology: Even strong results can trigger a "sell the news" reaction if investors perceive the rally as overextended.
• External Catalysts: Unrelated news (e.g., Fed policy, geopolitical events) could overshadow earnings.

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What Analysts Are Watching

• Data Center Revenue: The core driver of NVIDIA’s growth (₈₀% of revenue in recent quarters).
• China Exposure: Impact of U.S. export restrictions on sales.
• Gross Margins: Sustainability of ₇₀% margins amid supply chain investments.
• Capital Expenditure: Signals about future AI infrastructure spending.

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Conclusion

While NVIDIA’s long-term prospects in AI remain compelling, short-term price movements on February 26 will depend entirely on the earnings report and guidance. Historically, NVDA has rewarded investors when it exceeds elevated expectations, but no outcome is guaranteed.

If you’re trading, prepare for volatility and consider risk management strategies (e.g., stop-loss orders). For long-term investors, focus on fundamentals rather than single-day swings.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor.

[shepherd17]

https://x.com/brewmarkets/status/1894791656362140092

[lostsoul]

哈哈，这个图太艺术了

https://x.com/brewmarkets/status/1894791656362140092

[shepherd17]

哈哈，这个图太艺术了

再强劲的 earnings 也支撑不住这个庞大股市的压力。结果大家都看到了：

[lostsoul]

再强劲的 earnings 也支撑不住这个庞大股市的压力。结果大家都看到了：