股市残酷的夏季技术性重置终于结束了。 Citadel Securities 认为现在再次是买入的时机。
Citadel 的策略师 Scott Rubner 表示，过去几年中“技术难度最高”的交易环境之一终于开始缓和。
那首轻快的弗拉帕时代歌曲唱道：“快乐的日子又回来了，天空再次晴朗。”而 Citadel Securities 周二似乎正以同样的乐观情绪唱着这首歌，发布了对股票的看涨观点。
尽管一些人仍担心市场是否准备好继续向前推进，但今日的重点观点来自股票及股票衍生品策略主管 Scott Rubner，他保持乐观：“我们一直等待的技术性重置已经在很大程度上发生了。七月并未改变结构性的牛市，它只是对其进行了重置。”
他说，一个月前他们还在强调，“市场需要一次有意义的技术性重置”，之后才能再次对美股持建设性态度。
那么这段时间发生了什么？“散户投资者显著降低了风险，杠杆已恢复正常，融资条件改善，市场集中度下降，许多定义初夏行情的技术性过度因素已经被消化。”Rubner 在给客户的报告中解释道。
“重要的是，这次重置是通过轮动、去杠杆和更强的基本面实现的，而不是通过宏观经济背景的恶化。”他补充说。
与此同时，企业盈利持续超预期，估值变得更具吸引力，随着禁售窗口到期，企业回购需求也将回升，Rubner 表示。
“几个月来首次，我们认为投资者可以减少对仓位的关注，更多关注基本面。市场正在从一个由资金流驱动的环境，重新转向一个越来越由盈利、企业需求和宏观经济背景主导的环境。”
他说，周四的反弹中散户投资者卖出更多，这更符合他们的正常行为模式：逢低买入，然后在反弹时卖出。
Rubner 补充说，杠杆型 ETF 的资产规模已从六月峰值下降超过 600 亿美元，“移除了推动上半年行情的最大增量杠杆来源之一。”科技杠杆 ETF 资产下降 40%，芯片相关 ETF 资产下降 55%。
半导体行业市值合计蒸发 1.5 万亿美元，使其在标普 500 指数中的权重从接近 20% 降至 16%。他说：“广泛指数在掩盖内部显著波动方面表现出色，而平均股票价格仍接近历史高位。”
Rubner 指出更多市场正常化迹象。个股和行业的对冲成本异常昂贵，而整体市场的对冲成本却很低。单只股票与基准波动率之间这种奇怪的差距终于在近期的广泛抛售中得到修正。
至于基本面重新成为主导因素，Rubner 指出，市场普遍预期第二季度标普 500 盈利增长为 45%——而在财报季开始时仅为 22.4%——使其成为除重大衰退复苏之外最强劲的盈利季之一。
简而言之：“我们仍对中期前景保持建设性，因为这轮牛市的结构性支柱——创纪录的散户参与度、被动资金持有以及企业对股票的需求——依然牢固。”Rubner 说。
市场动态
随着伊朗和平协议预期升温，股票开盘大涨。
市场热点
油价大幅下跌，此前财政部长 Scott Bessent 告诉 CNBC，周二或周三可能达成伊朗协议，卡塔尔官员也提到可能达成短期协议。
Palantir（PLTR）因 AI 推动的盈利与收入超预期而上涨。
卡特彼勒（CAT）因数据中心建设热潮推动销售增长、利润上升而股价走高。麦当劳（MCD）业绩喜忧参半，股价小幅上涨。
SpaceX（SPCX）与 AMD（AMD）将在收盘后公布财报。
美国 6 月贸易逆差为 733 亿美元，高于预期。工厂订单与职位空缺数据将在上午 10 点公布。
AI 热潮正在以难以辨认的方式重塑美国经济。
周一公布的数据表明，6 月建筑支出下降 0.1%，但 Bespoke Investment Group 指出数据中心支出出现“显著上修”。与此同时，办公、仓储和科技制造业支出疲弱。
The stock market's brutal summer reset is finally over. Here is why Citadel Securities says it is time to buy again.
08/04/26 9:34 AM
Retail investor behavior, for one, has seen a shift
One of the "most technically challenging" trading setups Citadel has seen in years is finally easing up, says strategist Scott Rubner.
"Happy days are here again, the skies above are clear again," is how that chipper Flapper-era song goes, and Citadel Securities appears to be singing it with a bullish call for stocks on Tuesday.
While some are wary that markets are ready to move ahead, our call of the day comes from Scott Rubner, head of equity and equity-derivatives strategy, who is optimistic. "The technical reset we have been waiting for has largely occurred. July did not change the structural bull market. It reset it."
A month ago, he said, they were arguing that "markets needed a meaningful technical reset" before they could again get constructive on U.S. stocks.
What has happened since? "Retail investors have meaningfully reduced risk, leverage has normalized, funding conditions have improved, market concentration has declined, and many of the technical excesses that defined early summer have been unwound," the strategist explained in a note to clients.
"Importantly, the reset occurred through rotation, deleveraging, and stronger fundamentals, not through a deterioration in the macroeconomic backdrop," he added.
That's also as earnings continue to surprise on the upside, valuations are getting more attractive and corporate- buyback demand is set to pick up as blackout windows expire, Rubner added.
"For the first time in several months, we believe investors can spend less time focused on positioning and more time focused on fundamentals. Markets are transitioning from a flow-driven environment back to one increasingly dictated by earnings, corporate demand and the macroeconomic backdrop."
He said Thursday's bounce saw retail investors sell more in response, which is more in line with their normal behavior: buy the dip, then sell the rally.
Rubner added that leveraged exchange-traded-fund assets have declined more than $60 billion from a June peak, " removing one of the largest sources of incremental leverage that had fueled the first-half rally." Technology-leveraged exchange-traded fund assets are down 40% and chip assets down 55%.
The collective $1.5 trillion wipeout in semiconductor market capitalization has taken the industry's weight in the S&P 500 SPX to 16% from nearly 20%. "Broad indexes did an excellent job to mask material volatility under the hood, with the average stock near records," he said.
Rubner flagged more signs of a normalizing market. Hedging has been unusually pricey for individual stocks and sectors, but cheap for the overall market. That odd gap between single-stock and benchmark volatility finally righted itself during a recent broad-based selloff, he said.
As for fundamentals being back in the driver's seat, the strategist pointed out that consensus expectations for second-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth stand at 45% - from 22.4% at the start of the reporting season - making it one of the strongest earnings seasons outside of major recoveries from recessions.
In short: "We remain constructive on the medium-term outlook because the structural pillars of this bull market, including record retail participation, passive ownership, and corporate demand for equities, remain firmly intact," said Rubner.
The markets
Stocks DJIA COMP SPX are surging at the start of trading as Iran peace-deal hopes rise.
TreasuryTreasury Key asset performance Last 5d 1m YTD 1y S&P 500 7,600.5 2.53% 0.84% 11.03% 20.07% Nasdaq composite 25,913.90 3.94% -0.79% 11.50% 23.09% 10-year 4.71 9.90 15.40 53.80 49.20 Gold 4,103.3 1.85% -0.32% -5.28% 19.45% Oil 81.59 3.11% 13.01% 42.12% 25.20% Data: MarketWatch. yields change expressed in basis points
The buzz
Oil prices (CL.1) (BRN00) have moved sharply lower after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that there could be an Iran deal Tuesday or Wednesday and a Qatar official also spoke of a possible short-term agreement.
Palantir (PLTR) reported forecast-beating earnings and revenue driven by artificial-intelligence growth. Shares are now rising.
Caterpillar stock (CAT) is climbing after the heavy-machinery maker reporting a higher profit as sales jumped thanks in part to a booming data-center buildouts. McDonald's (MCD) reported mixed results and shares are up modestly.
Earnings from SpaceX (SPCX) (follow our Live Blog here) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) (follow here) are due after the close.
The U.S. trade deficit for June came in at a higher-than-expected $73.3 billion. Factory orders and job openings for June are coming at 10 a.m.
The AI boom is transforming the American economy beyond recognition.
The chart
Data released Monday showed a 0.1% fall in construction spending for June, but Bespoke Investment Group pointed out "notable upward revisions" for data-center spending. Elsewhere, spending is weak on general office, warehouse and tech manufacturing, Bespoke said in a note to clients.
Top tickers
These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m.:
Ticker Security name PLTR Palantir NVDA Nvidia SPCX SpaceX TSLA Tesla MU Micron MSFT Microsoft AMD Advanced Micro Devices GME GameStop TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing AAPL Apple
Backyard spa proves too tempting for this bear.
-Barbara Kollmeyer
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
08-04-26 0934ET
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